to the edge of the earth it a brave new world

How will the Russia-Ukraine war reshape the world? Here are four possible futures. The only certainty about the war over Ukraine is that all existing certainties have been shattered. We develop scenarios not to predict the future but to help decision makers imagine what could happen next and devise ways to prevent the worst case. What follows are four scenarios for how this war could conclude and the alternative geopolitical futures that might result, transforming international relations over the course of the next two to three years. It is difficult to see how Putin “wins.” But he cannot accept defeat. With the West leveling unprecedented sanctions against Russia in record time and the real potential for a descent into nuclear war, we are in uncharted territory. The spectrum of possible outcomes ranges from a volatile new cold or hot war involving the United States, Russia, and China to a frozen conflict in Ukraine to a post-Putin settlement in which Russia becomes part of a revised European security architecture. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine is a world-historical event, marking the final act of the post-Cold War period and the start of a new era, yet unwritten. It’s the big question keeping the world on edge: How does this end?

To the edge of the earth it a brave new world